It seems like only yesterday when NFL playoff teams took the field with a week of rest against advancing Wild Card Round winners and proceeded directly to winners circle. But such is not the case today. As Bob Dylan put it so sagely, “The times are a-changin’.”

Don’t know if you’ve noticed but what was once a moneymaking proposition backing rested teams in the NFL postseason has turned into a stone-cold loser, instead. Perhaps it’s been an over-adjustment by the linesmaker. Or maybe it was an edge that was lost by teams that opted not to play their starters in season finales. Whatever the case, to ask them to ‘turn on the switch’ two weeks later simply isn’t working.

Let’s examine how these rested teams have fared in the playoffs since 1990, when the league shifted from a ten to a twelve-team playoff format. Here are the results. (Note - all rested teams were hosting unrested Wild Card round winners):

1991-2007
55-17 SU and 38-32-2 ATS

Overall an unspectacular, if not respectable, 54% winning effort against the number. However, let’s break down the numbers and take a closer look at how these same teams have fared over the past two decades:

1991-1999
30-6 SU and 22-13-1 ATS
2000-2007
25-11 SU and 16-19-1 ATS

Uh, oh. Do you see what I see? Like the Exxon Valdez, these well-rested home teams appear to be leaking oil at an alarming rate. In fact, over the last 10 games these teams appear to have blown a gasket, going just 4-6 SU and 1-9 ATS.

Now what is your take on coaches resting starters in Week Sixteen of the season? So this week, take the time to carefully evaluate the four rested hosts and get a better perspective of their condition. It could be time well spent…

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